Heavy trucks enter the policy city commercial vehicle looming reorganization tide

December 20, Jinan has entered the midwinter season, China National Heavy Duty Truck (000951 Quotes, love shares, the main trend) at the 2009 Business Conference, General Manager Cai Dongzheng patiently for dealers in detail introduced the macro-control market opportunities The specific investment projects implemented by each province and city are the focus of CNHTC's distributors, as this can bring truck orders.

The 4 trillion investment plan for boosting domestic demand is trying hard to promote the recovery of commercial vehicles. In 2009, the policy will become a life-saving straw for the commercial vehicle industry.

The production and sales situation of commercial vehicles as "production materials" once fell to the bottom in the second half of this year. The data shows that domestic commercial vehicle sales in November fell by 25.96% compared with the same period of last year, which is the decline in domestic commercial vehicle sales for five consecutive months since July.

Unexpected crisis

“I went to the port and the pier to see nobody.” General manager Chen Xing of a heavy-duty truck company Yantai and Weihai regional sales company said, “The sales situation in the second half of the year is very bad, and the situation in the next year is not expected to be fast. restore."

The overall shrinkage of ports, logistics, mining, and real estate projects is currently hitting the commercial vehicle industry as a whole. Heavy-duty truck companies have experienced the embarrassing situation of having no orders after the “11′′.

"In the first half of the year, there were five or six hundred orders a day, and the factory was overloaded. But in the second half of the year, only orders for about 10 vehicles were received. The number of orders after the "Eleventh" was even smaller." A relevant person in charge of a heavy truck company said.

According to statistics from China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in November, the production and sales of wagons were 104,400 units and 110,300 units, a year-on-year decrease of 23.41% and 16.12%. However, in the first half of 2008, the performance of commercial vehicles was not the same, and the increase in sales of the commercial vehicle market exceeded the performance of the passenger vehicle market over the same period. This is unprecedented. Many companies have completed two-thirds of their annual tasks in the first four months. In the first half of this year, sales of heavy trucks reached 387,200 units, an increase of 51% year-on-year. The first-half year-on-year sales growth of FAW Jiefang, Dongfeng, and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group in the first camp of China heavy truck companies was 44%, 73.5% and 40%, respectively.

Cai Dong said that in addition to the unanticipated impact of the economic crisis, the emission standards in the second half of 2008 changed from country II to country III, which also brought down the inertia of the heavy truck market. At the same time, the dealers accumulated a large number of trucks on the national II. Early release of sales in the second half of the year.

The recovery growth that the industry expects after the “11” has never appeared, but replaced by the global economic crisis. Cai Dong believes that the reduction in aggregate demand will be irreversible. “The total number of heavy trucks in 2008 should be around 530,000, and the overall demand for the industry next year should be 430,000. The industry is expected to decline by about 15%-20% next year.”

Look forward to the policy city

China National Heavy Duty Truck Chairman Ma Chunji has travelled to and from Beijing and Jinan for a period of time. At the meeting organized by the State Council and relevant ministries and commissions to analyze the economic situation, expand domestic demand, and revitalize the automobile industry, Ma Chunji presented his own on behalf of the heavy truck industry. opinion.

“In the nine industries that have formulated the revitalization plan, steel ranks first and cars rank second,” Ma Chunji said. “I have made some suggestions on how to revitalize the heavy-duty truck industry and face opportunities.”

Ma Chunji believes that the tax reform of refined oil products should be accelerated. After eliminating some of the toll items for highways, it will reduce the operating costs of logistics companies and stimulate the consumption of heavy trucks.

Secondly, we hope to strictly implement environmental protection measures, speed up the upgrading of yellow-label vehicles (highly polluting vehicles), and increase the speed of scrapped cars, because the replacement vehicle market occupies a considerable share.

“In some areas, trucks have been used for more than 10 years, and some heavy trucks that exceed their useful life should be eliminated.” Liu Keqiang, assistant to general manager of Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck Sales, even believes that “the increase in heavy truck market next year will mainly rely on There are not many other growth points in the replacement market for vehicle elimination."

The proposal also includes that in this year's truck companies in the case of a serious decline in exports to individual countries, hope that the policy can give some support, including taxation, financial credit and so on.

In addition, Ma Chunji also proposed that he hopes that the government can provide support for the company's innovative R&D projects, and increase the access threshold for the heavy truck industry accordingly, and promote the merger and reorganization among enterprises. Because the global financial crisis has triggered deep structural adjustments and industrial upgrading, it has brought good reorganization and development opportunities to enterprises and will help enterprises achieve their goals of becoming stronger and bigger.

China National Heavy Duty Truck Vice President Wei Zhihai said that in 2009 the heavy truck market will become a government-led market. Although the overall demand for the heavy truck market slows down, but with a series of national policies gradually in place, the heavy truck industry will take the lead. "Infrastructure construction in 4 trillion yuan will begin to boost the heavy truck market in the second quarter or the second half of next year."

Accelerate industry reshuffle

In the past eight years, domestic commercial vehicles have maintained a high growth rate of more than 15% and will end in 2008. While the growth is stagnant, the speed of reshuffling the industry will accelerate.

On December 12, Zhang Ping, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the Economic Work Conference of the National Development and Reform Commission that next year it will focus on the merger and reorganization of five industries, including autos, steel, coal, electricity, and cement.

According to statistics, from January to November this year, in the heavy truck market share of over 19 tons, China National Heavy Duty Trucks occupied 25.13%, Dongfeng was 18.16% (10.7% of Shiyan's market share), FAW 13.41%, Shaanxi Auto 10.79%, Fukuda 8.51%.

Large-tonnage, high-power, high-end heavy trucks suitable for specialized transportation will become mainstream models. However, in the drastic changes in the truck development situation, due to the different strategic planning of each company, the industry status of the companies has undergone a dramatic change. The change of the joint venture route of Volvo, the international commercial vehicle giant, in China fully reflects this process of change.

This year, rumors that Volvo and Dongfeng's joint venture plan has already been blown. According to sources, the key issue is Volvo's reluctance to withdraw from the Huawo project in Shandong, that is, it is not willing to terminate its cooperation with Sinotruck.

In 2003, when Sinotruk and Volvo were in a joint venture, China National Heavy Duty Truck still remained in the stage of reform and reorganization to achieve relief. However, in 2008, China National Heavy Duty Truck expects to produce and sell more than 112,000 heavy trucks and produce 128,000 engines. The annual sales revenue will exceed 50 billion yuan.

Analysts believe that Volvo once again "reasonable" is in reason, heavy truck camps represented by China National Heavy Duty Truck and Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck, are eating the once ace - the liberation and Dongfeng market share, and two Companies are building a gold industrial chain, relying on listed companies to form the advantages of integrating internal resources of the industry. As the market turns cold, competition in the industry will become more intense and mergers and reorganizations will be inevitable because the heavy-duty truck industry has not yet undergone large-scale industrial reshuffles.

Market participants believe that the monopoly of the passenger car industry (Yutong Bus (600066 Quotes, Love Shares, main trend)), Sanlong (Xiamen Golden Dragon, Xiamen Golden Brigade, Suzhou Golden Dragon) will provide a blueprint for the merger and reorganization of the heavy truck industry.

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