High-end shortage, low-end surplus, China's power battery structural excess

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2016, new energy vehicles sold 507,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 53%. Driven by the rapid growth of new energy vehicles, the power battery industry in 2016 also ushered in a substantial increase, and nearly 80% of enterprises achieved profit growth. Among them, nearly 50 companies with net profit growth exceeding 100% year-on-year.

At the same time, however, the “small and scattered” pattern of the power battery industry has not been resolved, and the problem of high-end capacity shortage and low-end overcapacity is further aggravated. In 2017, affected by multiple factors such as subsidy policy, sales of new energy vehicles in January fell sharply year-on-year, and the power battery industry was directly affected. The industry is facing a new round of integration and restructuring.

Power battery industry turns from hot to cold

With the popularity of new energy vehicle sales, in 2016, the profit of the power battery industry increased significantly. According to the 2016 annual report, nearly 80% of power battery companies have achieved profit growth. Among them, the number of enterprises with the largest increase in net profit forecasting more than 100% year-on-year reached 48, and the number of enterprises with a net profit limit of over 100 million yuan was forecast to reach 68. The industry leader BYD expects net profit in 2016 to be as high as 5.2 billion yuan.

It is precisely because of the continuous high growth of the new energy vehicle market that the power battery capacity has been short-circuited, the supply is insufficient, and even the phenomenon that the sales of new energy vehicle companies is determined by the output of battery companies. Under this situation, in 2015 and 2016, the investment volume of domestic power battery companies continued to grow and the production capacity continued to expand. As of the end of 2016, the new capacity of the domestic power battery industry increased by 42GWh (1GWh=1 million kWh) compared with the same period, and the total volume was almost three times that of the full year of 2015.

Due to the rapid increase in scale, China has become the main production base for global lithium-ion battery for vehicles. In this regard, Ouyang Minggao, the head of the overall expert group of the National 863 Program Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Major Project, and Tsinghua University professor, said that the production capacity of the industry may reach saturation within three to five years.

In 2017, due to the combination of multiple factors, sales of new energy vehicles in January fell by more than 70% year-on-year. Coupled with the rising prices of raw materials, the pressure on the cost reduction of the power battery industry has surged and it has begun to fall into structural adjustment.

The data shows that compared with December 2016, the price of ternary lithium battery and lithium iron phosphate power battery decreased in the first half of February this year, a drop of more than 15%. As new energy vehicle manufacturers are still in the adjustment period, at present, the overall start of the power battery companies is flat, and the order volume has dropped by more than 20%.

According to industry analysis, the sharp price cuts of power batteries are due to the recent decline in sales of new energy vehicles and the overcapacity caused by large-scale expansion. In 2016, the domestic new production capacity of power batteries was nearly three times that of 2015, while the output increased by only 82%.

Experts said that in 2017, the overall power battery capacity will be excessive, and the industry will face differentiation.

High-end production capacity is low and low-end surplus

Miao Wei, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at the Electric Vehicle Hundred People Forum that the new energy automobile industry is still in the initial stage of development, just as “there is no way to go against the water,” but although the production and sales scale of the new energy automobile industry has achieved rapid growth, the momentum The core technology of the battery needs to be greatly improved, and the construction of the charging infrastructure still needs to be accelerated. At present, enterprises have already experienced structural overcapacity, and the problem of high-end power battery capacity shortage and low-end overcapacity is further aggravated.

At present, the polarization of the power battery market is serious, the problem of low-level redundant construction is prominent, and the structural risks of the industry are rising. In terms of market concentration, the market share of the top 10 companies in 2015 was 75.3%, and the total number of 121 integrated power batteries could not exceed 20 in the vehicle supply system.

According to the relevant information released by China Electric Vehicles 100, the outstanding problems in the development of China's automotive lithium battery industry mainly include the rapid expansion of production capacity, high-end shortage of low-end surplus; battery announcement management is tightening, enterprises are not adequate; battery cells The performance is not bad, but the technical gap is obvious; the technical route is controversial, some enterprises are frustrated; the power battery automation equipment is low; the safety accidents are frequent, the battery safety is not important; the recycling has technical obstacles, and the implementation of the policy is difficult. .

In this regard, Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Association, said that under the favorable policies, many new energy auto companies are busy increasing production and competing to attract goods to battery companies, in order to get battery products in time and even reduce quality requirements. In order to guarantee supply, some battery component companies have lowered quality standards, relaxed management, and slowed down the pace of technology research and development. At the same time, the industry still has the problem of “small and scattered”. Due to the rapid expansion of the market and low barriers to entry, a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises with low R&D skills have begun to enter the power battery industry, but these companies have no advantage in technological innovation and profitability.

The industry believes that although China's power battery industry has entered the first camp in the world, this does not mean that there is no gap with top companies such as Korea and Japan. According to a person in charge of the company, the current battery products produced by Japanese and Korean giants. There are only three of the one million unqualified, and the qualification rate of Chinese companies' battery products is still unable to reach this level.

Power battery industry or ushered in change

Some people in the industry believe that after the overcapacity of the power battery industry, there will be a fierce price war, and problems such as falling profits will continue to plague enterprises. However, high-end production capacity will be in short supply, and those enterprises with product technology advantages, production scale advantages and market share advantages will have better room for growth. In 2017, the power battery industry is about to usher in a big wave of sand-sand screening. Some battery manufacturers with poor product quality and low safety factor will gradually be eliminated by the market.

Wang Binggang, head of the National New Energy Vehicle Technology Innovation Engineering Expert Group, said that power battery companies are showing structural excess, not absolute surplus. The elimination process of third- and fourth-line power battery companies will accelerate, and some enterprises with backward technology and low-end positioning will also Will be integrated into mergers and acquisitions.

Miao Wei said that in the future, it will strengthen capacity control and further advance technological progress. By revising the regulations on the management of new energy vehicle production enterprises and product access, we will improve the entry barriers for technology and prevent low-level redundant construction. In response to the development pattern of “scatter, small, and weak”, we will establish a capacity early warning mechanism to guide enterprises to plan their capacity development plans reasonably.

Chen Qingtai also believes that it is necessary to build an environmentally friendly, healthy and sustainable power battery industry chain, increase investment in research and development, make great efforts to grasp the quality, and solve the exposed problems in a down-to-earth manner. In addition to the manufacturing process, the gap between domestic and international advanced technology lies in the basic industry. It should pay more attention to the research of basic industries and fundamentally shorten the gap with the world's advanced technology. At the same time, the government should also guide the industry policy, promote industry changes, eliminate low-end production capacity, increase market concentration, and optimize the industrial structure.

Promoting technological advancement in the power battery industry and creating a number of new products and technologies is becoming a major way to break through the bottleneck of overcapacity. According to Li Wei, a researcher at the Institute of Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Chinese Academy of Sciences is currently developing all-solid-state lithium batteries. It is expected that the first batch of all-solid lithium batteries will enter the market between 2020 and 2025.

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