Fertilizer market is expected to surge after the Spring Festival or be hit by policy

Affected by abnormal weather, local areas such as Henan, Hubei, Shaanxi, Hebei and Shandong have recently reappeared the phenomenon of “power cuts and power cuts”, and the operating rate of enterprises has been suppressed. The industry believes that the overall operating rate of the industry may fall back into the low before and after the Spring Festival, and as the peak season approaches and downstream stocking starts, the fertilizer market is expected to usher in a staged surge from late February to March. In order to protect domestic fertilizer, policies may be further tightened.
Production and inventory fall into a trough On January 21, Cangzhou Dahua announced that PetroChina has decided to stop supplying natural gas for production from the company on January 20. The production gas will be resumed in due course according to the resource conditions and temperature conditions in North China. The suspension of the company’s natural gas supply will result in the suspension of production of the company’s urea and nitric acid production facilities.
This is just a microcosm of the reduction of fertilizer companies. As the strong cold weather has hit a large area this winter, some domestic places have once again adopted the “power cuts” measures to protect the normal use of electricity for civil festivals and some important departments and agencies during the Spring Festival, and many companies stop production due to stoppages. Zhang Ming, an analyst at China Chemical Network, said that the overall operating rate of the industry that has just returned to 70% is about to fall back into the low before and after the Spring Festival.
From the point of view of circulation, fertilizer distributors wait and see mood is strong. According to estimates, the stock rates of grassroots distributors in East China and North China are less than 20%. Large and medium-sized distributors such as Sinochem have begun stocking half an month ago. The stock ratio is between 40%, but this is far from satisfying the demand for spring plowing. demand.
Yantai area, a manager of agricultural materials company, said that due to the uncertainty in the market trend, as of now the purchase volume is still less than half of last year, and the only inventory is mostly compound fertilizer, urea, diammine has not yet been purchased to a suitable source.
Zhang Ming stated that in 2010, production decreased and exports increased, and then considering the current operating rate, low inventory, anthracite prices to maintain a good upward trend and natural gas prices are expected to rise after the Spring Festival, etc., 2011 spring plowing fertilizer In previous years, the domestic urea market was expected to be tight in price, and agricultural urea prices are likely to stand on the 2100 yuan/ton mark again.
Policy or further tightening in the whole year, the International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA) predicts that the total amount of fertilizers in the world will increase in 2011 compared to 2010, although the tariffs will shorten the export window in the off-season for one month, but the annual fertilizer exports The amount will still rise steadily. The industry believes that the export window of phosphate fertilizer and urea will be opened in June and July respectively. The strong international market demand will certainly attract domestic enterprises to prepare for export in advance, so that the autumn sowing fertilizer will once again stand the test.
According to rumors, as soon as possible in June, the relevant state ministries and committees will once again make adjustments to focus issues such as export tariffs and production companies' various concessions. At that time, exports of key agricultural products such as urea and diammonium phosphate will be further tightened. Analysts believe that chemical fertilizer companies, especially Luxi Chemical Yuntianhua, Hubei Yihua and other export-oriented enterprises may once again face the situation of sudden pressure from the policy in 2010, and should be prepared in advance.

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