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The consulting firm Siwang Energy estimated on February 25th that China’s total oil and related products consumption in 2011 is expected to reach 4.57-458 million tons, an increase of 4-5% from the same period of last year, with an increase of 7 percentage points year-on-year.
The net import of petroleum products mentioned above is expected to reach 1100-1200 tons, a 17-18% reduction year-on-year.
Siwang Energy also expects that the average annual increase in China's crude oil processing volume this year will continue to maintain a steady growth of 5-6%, as the process of nationalization of refineries and access to crude oil resources in some localities is gradually accelerating and the operating rate is expected to increase. In addition, it is expected that the domestic refined oil pricing mechanism will not undergo fundamental adjustment in the short term, and the enthusiasm for the start-up of refineries will remain high.
On the other hand, due to the fact that the start-up load of China's main refineries has reached the highest level in history, and 2011 is the young year for new refineries and energy production, it is expected that there will be limited room for growth in China's crude oil processing volume this year, and the year-on-year growth rate will be lower than that of 2010. 13% cut more than half.
The agency said that China’s dependence on crude oil imports will continue to deepen this year; the import volume and dependence of naphtha and other chemical intermediates will also show an upward trend.
Regarding refined oil products, the overall supply elasticity may be narrowed as the growth rate of production of medium distillate oil is not as fast as consumption growth. It is expected that the net gasoline export volume will continue to rise, the net export of diesel oil may fall, and the net import of aviation coal is expected to increase; the dependence on the import of fuel oil and asphalt will decrease.
In addition, the international crude oil price fluctuations in 2011 will also have a significant impact on the market's short-term balance. In particular, non-vehicle diesel is stable in nature, easy to store, and has ample domestic idle storage capacity. Speculative demand is easily amplified by the impact of oil prices.
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